Adapt

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Tim Harford is a Financial Times columnist and the presenter of Radio 4′s More or Less, which won the Royal Statistical Society’s 2010 award for statistical excellence in broadcast journalism. He is also the author of several books, including The Undercover Economist. His latest is Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure.

Cory Doctorow: First of all, some context — what’s the thesis of Adapt, and how does it refine, extend or improve upon The Undercover Economist?

Tim Harford: The Undercover Economist was a book about the economic principles behind everyday life, from the way Starbucks prices drinks to the rise of China. Adapt isn’t primarily an economics book at all — it’s a book about how complex problems are solved. (If ideas from economics help, great. But sometimes they don’t.)

That said, the two books start from a very similar place: describing the amazing complexity of the economy that produces the everyday objects which surround us. In Undercover it was a cappuccino, and in Adapt I describe a memorable project in which a student called Thomas Thwaites attempts to build a simple toaster from scratch. But in Adapt this complexity isn’t just a cause for a “wow, cool” moment — it’s a headache, because it’s a measure of the obstacles facing anyone who wants to solve problems in this very intricate, interconnected world.

Ultimately Adapt argues that the only way forward is experimentation, which can either be formal or ad hoc. Whether we’re talking about poverty in Nigeria or innovation in Boston, solutions tend to evolve rather than be designed in some burst of awesome genius. And then the question is — what do we need to encourage those experiments?

via boingboing.net

The two most effective incentives for crowdsourced work

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From a recent study looking at the most effective incentives for increasing answer quality from crowdsourced Mechanical Turk workers: both of the top two incentives relied on getting workers to think about what others’ answers would be:

Punishment Agreement (financial)
“After this HIT has been completed, we will review the answers for at least one of the following five questions. For each of the questions we review, we will penalize you if you disagree with the majority of other workers who complete this HIT. The penalty will be a deduction of 10% from the total bonus you could have earned if your answer had agreed with the majority.”

Bayesian Truth Serum or BTS (financial)
“For the following five questions, we will also ask you to predict the re- sponses of other workers who complete this task. There is no incentive to misreport what you truly believe to be your answers as well as others’ answers. You will have a higher probability of winning a lottery (bonus payment) if you submit answers that are more surprisingly common than collectively predicted.”

Read the full paper here. [PDF]

via boingboing.net

Prehype helps companies execute on “20% projects”

Prehype aims to come into a company and identify its “intrapreneurs.” Then, they will host the employee or employees a la Google’s 20% time, building a new company outside of the original company. Another way it works is if an employee has an idea and seeks out Prehype. Prehype will then help them convince their company it’s a good idea. If successful, they will spend the first four weeks planning and fleshing out the idea. In either case, the goal is to build something magnificent and sell it back to the bigger company.

“When we set out, we have this concept of an intrapreneur. It’s pretty easy to spot them. It’s the person who’s been there for a couple of years. The person in the meeting who raises their voice and has ideas that people listen to. They feel comfortable about asking the slightly silly questions and making sure everyone is on board,” says Prehype’s Philip Petersen.

Prehype spends a total of 12-14 weeks building the company, leveraging an external network of developers and designers. The idea can be big or small. Prehype only cares about it being successful. After the project has been greenlighted, they start building and Prehype ensures that the project is managed well for the engineers. Like any startup, pivoting is expected, but Prehype tries to keep it to a 3 month-long schedule, which forces the entrepreneur to limit his or her idea.

“It’s a lot about the process rather than the actual product. A lot of people think we’re an agency when we get into the corporation. So, we use the American Idol metaphor, in that it’s partly the process that helps create the winner. It’s a notion of going through a process where we have an idea of what the product will be but also leaves room for growth, as with any startup out there, we expect a healthy amount of pivoting based on feedback from real users before the end product is born,” says Petersen.

While it’s completely project dependent, if the company buys or spins out the new company, Prehype generally gives 20% of the money back to the entrepreneur(s) and the rest is split amongst Prehype’s partners and the developer and designer pool accordingly. Prehype doesn’t charge for the production, other than a flat management fee that is normally around $25,000 per month.

Interesting model — companies outsource the development and execution of innovative Google-style “20% projects” to Prehype for a fixed fee, ownership is shared after launch. Having clear and friendly ownership terms seems crucial here — I will be curious if this version holds: “If the company buys or spins out the new company, Prehype generally gives 20% of the money back to the entrepreneur(s) and the rest is split amongst Prehype’s partners and the developer and designer pool accordingly.”

Building companies on top of tech infrastructure

The East Coast tech-scene is booming because we are going through a phase where experience design, clever new business models and distribution is becoming as important as the technology itself. The new East Coast growth companies are standing on the shoulders of the tech platforms that the West Coast has built over the past decade such as easy-to-use infrastructures like Amazon, discovery tools like Google and Facebook’s social graph. While companies like Esty, Groupon and Gilt Groupe are considered technology companies, they are really just smart, new innovative companies – built on top of technology. I imagine that New York’s access to talented designers, marketers and business developers will continue this trend.

Insightful quote from Henrik Werdelin, founder of Prehype, on the rush of innovation happening in consumer-focused web startups in New York.

NYC Digital City Road Map

Beyond the press about NYC partnerships with consumer internet companies like Foursquare and Tumblr, there is a lot of great information in here about increasing citizen access to technology, opening up government data, and supporting a thriving tech ecosystem.

CEO Innovation Playbook

Innovation manifesto from Idris Mootee, head of “b-school + d-school” firm Idea Couture.

Service Design

From finance to healthcare to media, New York’s economy is primarily driven by services. Yet our understanding of what design offers is rooted in products and places rather than how those things operate or how people use them — design has traditionally concerned itself with goods, not services. Only in the past decade or so have designers been actively reconceptualizing what it means to interact with and help shape services. According to Professor Birgit Mager, who runs the Cologne-based Service Design Network, “Service design addresses the functionality and form of services from the perspective of clients. It aims to ensure that service interfaces are useful, usable, and desirable from the client’s point of view and effective, efficient, and distinctive from the supplier’s point of view.”

In particular, services require designers to empathize with users, to understand interactions as a series of “touchpoints” and to develop a holistic understanding of the ways in which our relationships to services govern everyday life. The multiple ways this emerging field of practice relates to the rest of the design field are still in formation. So I sat down with several leading designers and researchers from universities in the US and Europe to start a conversation about what service design is, where it came from and where it is going. This interview expands on an event, “Service Design Performances” (PDF), which was held at Parsons The New School for Design in late May. The event, organized by the DESIS Lab, is the first in a series of activities around the topic of service design that are taking place in New York in the coming months.

Mondo Window

Today’s the day to announce, along with Laughing Squid and CNET, the public beta of Mondo Window, which lets you see what you’re looking at out your airplane window. As far as we know, this is the first site designed specifically for use with in-flight internet, but those bragging rights are less important than the fact that now you can FIND OUT WHAT YOU’RE LOOKING AT OUT THE WINDOW OF THE PLANE YOU ARE FLYING IN.

New project from Stamen Design to help you identify what you’re seeing out of the window of the plane you’re flying in.

Mid-size cities growing faster than megacities

By 2025, the emerging-market cities of this City 600 will be home to an estimated 235 million households earning more than $20,000 a year — markedly morethan the just over 210 million such households expected in the cities of developed regions. In other words, there will be more higher middle income households in emerging-market cities than in developed-world ones.

Foreign Policy highlights a McKinsey Global Institute report on how the economic and population growth of mid-size cities will outperform that of megacities through 2025.

Little Bets

LittleBets-v2.pdf Download this file

 

Little Bets is a new book by Peter Sims on the role of experimentation and play in the world of innovation.  

Fundamental to the little bets approach is that we:
• experiment: learn by doing. fail quickly to learn fast. develop experiments and prototypes to gather insights, identify problems, and build up to creative ideas, like beethoven did in order to discover new musical styles and forms.
• play: a playful, improvisational, and humorous atmosphere quiets our inhibitions when ideas are incubating or newly hatched, and prevents creative ideas from being snuffed out or prematurely judged.
• immerse: take time to get out into the world to gather fresh ideas and insights, in order to understand deeper human motivations and desires, and absorb how things work from the ground up.
• define: use insights gathered throughout the process to define specific problems and needs before solving them, just as the google founders did when they realized that their library search algorithm could address a much larger problem.
• reorient: be flexible in pursuit of larger goals and aspirations, making good use of small wins to make necessary pivots and chart the course to completion.
• iterate: repeat, refine, and test frequently armed with better insights, information, and assumptions as time goes on, as chris rock does to perfect his act.
Copyright © 2010 chris coldewey. All rights reserved.