What Disruption Looks Like

Finally, we have seen a pervasive pattern in every industry that has been transformed through disruption. This same pattern characterizes what has happened to date with disruptive initiatives in health care. The energies, talent, and resources of the leading organizations in an established system always are absorbed in improving their best products, which are sold to address the most demanding applications in the industry. Why? Because the high end of most markets is where the most attractive profits are made, serving the most profitable customers. When a disruptive technological enabler emerges, the leaders in the industry disparage and discourage it because, with its orientation toward simplicity and accessibility, the disruption just isn’t capable of solving the complicated problems that define the world in which the leading experts work.

Clay Christensen on patterns of disruptive innovation that hold across industries.

Creator of Aviva social innovation competition defends the model

“they’re just a popularity contest”

Voting, and especially social media voting in a cause marketing platform, is a popularity contest. That popularity brings people to a branded site which creates exposure to the contest organizer. The formula is pretty standard there. Ultimately, a degree of any competition has to do with the ability to rally support – be it a student council vote, or voting in the AMEX Member’s Project. Inherently there’s a hope that a democratic process like voting yields a valid outcome.

The way that I view the Aviva Community Fund is in two phases – the marketing phase, and the cause phase. The marketing phase (up to selecting the finalists) is 100% participant chosen, and 100% the result of an idea’s ability to rally voters. The cause side (judging) narrows the finalist ideas to the winners using detailed criteria designed to identify the most deserving projects with the biggest impact. I reiterate, we find the best idea from a sub-set selected based on popularity. The most deserving ideas get funding.

Patrick Glinski of Idea Couture discusses the Aviva Community Fund crowdfunding platform and addresses some of the pushback to social change voting contests.

DARPA & Storytelling

Stories exert a powerful influence on human thoughts and behavior. They consolidate
memory, shape emotions, cue heuristics and biases in judgment, influence in-group/out-group distinctions, and may affect the fundamental contents of personal identity.

Yes, yes, stories are touchy feely but important, yes.

It comes as no surprise that these influences make stories highly relevant to vexing security challenges such as radicalization, violent social mobilization, insurgency and terrorism, and conflict prevention and resolution. Therefore, understanding the role stories play in a security context is a matter of great import and some urgency.

Wait, WHAT. Now you have my attention.

Ascertaining exactly what function stories enact, and by what mechanisms they do so, is a necessity if we are to effectively analyze the security phenomena shaped by stories. Doing this in a scientifically respectable manner requires a working theory of narratives, an understanding of what role narratives play in security contexts, and examination of how to best analyze stories—decomposing them and their psychological impact systematically.

If you skipped that paragraph, here’s the important part:

To encourage and stimulate discussion and research on these issues, the Defense Sciences Office (DSO) of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is hosting a workshop, Stories, Neuroscience and Experimental Technologies (STORyNET): Analysis and Decomposition of Narratives in Security Contexts.

OK, mind blown. That was DARPA, the R&D wing of the US Department of Defense, announcing a conference on STORYTELLING. Kudos to DARPA for pushing the envelope not just in the telekinetic monkey department, but in bringing in “soft” factors like how narratives form and stick. It’s about time we actually had some new thinking about how hearts and minds are actually won.

via Bruce Sterling at wired.com

Demographics in Egypt – “dry tinder waiting for the spark”

As of this year, 52 percent of all Egyptians are under the age of 25, and one in five is between the ages of 15-24–the ages of many of those out in the streets demonstrating against the government. When Mubarak took office, there were 9 million youth aged 15-24, and now there are 17 million, according to data from the UN Population Division. That’s a lot of people to be dissatisfied with the difficulty of finding jobs, paying the bills, and saving money to marry and raise a family. To be sure, the mere presence of this large youth population would not, on its own, spark a revolution. But it was dry tinder waiting for the spark, which seemed to have been lit in Tunisia.

National Intelligence Council on North Africa democratization (2008)

“In other regions, integrating young adults into the work force—coupled with a declining birth rate and shrinking youth bulge—has provided an opening for democratization. Social scientists have found that, as an increasing proportion of the population had a stake in the system, formerly authoritarian states like South Korea and Taiwan felt they could experiment with political liberalization. An important cluster of North African countries—Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia—has the potential to realize such a demographic-democratic nexus in the period to 2025, but it is unclear whether these authoritarian regimes will exploit these opportunities to liberalize.”

A Snapshot of Vancouver’s Green Future

Time: 2020. Place: Mount Pleasant.

The business streets look mostly the same, but there’s a different atmosphere, literally, because the air is cleaner. The broad sidewalks accommodate tables spilling out from restaurants in the summer. A street car runs down Main. Bicyclists still prefer bikeways over the main roads, but there are more of them on the main roads because there is more room and less exhaust to breathe. Apparently, the less people drive, the less they want to drive, because people are increasingly choosing active and public transportation over getting in their cars. Nearly a quarter of the cars are electric and car share lots provide a convenient solution for trips with big loads. Ski and recreation buses make regular morning and evening trips so it’s easy to get to and from the mountains.   

A scenario of Vancouver in 2020 with the Greenest City goals in place, by planners Lindsay Cole and Amanda Mitchell, and Vancouver Observer writer Carrie Saxifrage.

Fantastic to see Vancouver planners creating tangible future visions — scenarios like this can be excellent communication tools in a way that lists of targets and goals cannot. I would love to see more future scenarios for the many slices of Vancouver beyond Mt. Pleasant-dwelling composting woodworkers. Keep them coming!

Opinion Space – Visualizing the Diversity of Perspectives

“Opinion Space is a new social media technology designed to help communities exchange ideas and suggestions about the issues and policies they care about. Opinion Space is based on a game model that incorporates techniques from deliberative polling, collaborative filtering, and multidimensional visualization. It introduces an intuitive graphical “map” that displays patterns, trends, and insights as they emerge.”

Opinion Space for analyzing perspectives on foreign policy: U.S. Department of State

Opinion Space for innovation and new product/service ideation: Innovation Prototype

Superlinear scaling for cities

Big cities have a statistical advantage because the agglomeration of people, more intense social interactions, and better developed infrastructures invoke efficiencies and speed up the pace at which things happen. This is a worldwide, historic fact and does not much depend on what is particular or special in a given city, he says.

The researchers have shown, in fact, that with each doubling of city population, each inhabitant is, on average, 15 percent wealthier, 15 percent more productive, 15 percent more innovative, and 15 percent more likely to be victimized by violent crime regardless of the city’s geography or the decade in which you pull the data.

Remarkably, this 15 percent rule holds for a number of other statistics as well – so much so that if you tell Bettencourt and West the population of an anonymous city, they can tell you the average speed at which its inhabitants walk.

Scientists call this phenomenon “superlinear scaling.” Rather than metrics increasing proportionally with population – in a “linear,” or one-for-one fashion – measures that scale superlinearly increase consistently at a nonlinear rate greater than one for one.

A new way to quantifiably assess characteristics of cities and performance regarding different socioeconomic indicators (safety, innovation, productivity, walking speed, almost anything…). The cool thing is that its not just relative to other cities, but relative to what a city’s performance *should be* given its size.

via kottke

All Species Foundation

A Call for the Discovery of ALL Life Forms on Earth

If we discovered life on another planet, the first thing we would do is conduct a systematic inventory of that planet’s life. This is something we have never done on our home planet. The aim of the All Species Inventory is simple: within the span of our own generation, record and genetically sample every living species of life on Earth. This audacious goal will be accomplished by using one billion or more dollars of philanthropic wealth to fund and train a network of local collectors and naturalists throughout the world, and to employ the latest in information technology to manage this surge of bio-information.

What we’ll get from the All Species Inventory

  • 1. It will give us, for the first time, a complete list of “who is here,” the roster of our fellow inhabitants.
  • 2. It will provide a reliable baseline for counting populations and determining endangered species.
  • 3. It will form the foundation for developing a complete genome of all life, and a new understanding of nature.
  • 4. It will uncover multitudes of new species, many of which will have immediate cultural and economic impacts.
  • 5. It will train many people as naturalists and scientists, who can leverage these skills further in their own lives and that of society.
  • 6. It will distribute wealth from the developed world to far corners of the Earth by employing indigenous and native observers and collectors. At the present time, scientific estimates of the number of living species on Earth, including microbes, range from 1.4 million to 200 million. This laughable range means we are simply clueless about the number, let alone types, of living creatures on Earth.
  • The Internet Archive has a saved version of Kevin Kelly’s All Species Foundation site from the early 2000s. The project had an amazingly audacious vision and a team of world-class advisors, but was built on dot-com-era funding which basically collapsed after 2000. Good to see efforts such as the Encyclopedia of Life and the Census of Marine Life carry the vision forward, though neither are driven by the All Species Foundation’s bottom-up vision of a worldwide “network of local collectors and naturalists.”

    The story of a Chinese megacity

    These are good times indeed for Chongqing, home to 32 million people and growing so quickly its maps are already out of date by the time they are printed. The bursting municipality — a dense urban core ringed by rapidly changing rural districts that together are about the size of Austria and now have more people than Iraq — is the gateway to China’s fast-filling west. Ambitions and limitations collide there at the same spectacular speed with which the city has exploded and, along with it, the prospects of its luckier residents.

    Foreign Policy on the rise of Chongqing.

    Copyright © 2010 chris coldewey. All rights reserved.